I’ve held off on making this call for a while now, but I feel comfortable saying it now. Chuck Hagel is running for reelection:
We figured out about a couple weeks ago here at UNO Dems that Lee Terry was running for reelection, and not the Senate. It wasn’t until Thursday that we figured out why. We’re ready to say with a great level of confidence that Chuck Hagel is running for reelection, and that Jon Bruning will challenge him for the nomination.
Bruning’s announcement that he wasn’t going to wait for Hagel was sign number one. Sign number two was Bruning’s polling information that showed him leading Hagel by 9 points, and Hagel’s push back in the press. For the last week, there’s been a stealth war going on between the two candidates, with Hagel’s people silently leaking a 23 year-old Jon Bruning’s Daily Nebraskan columns from around 1992, where he voiced support for gay rights, a woman’s right to choose, gun control, and endorsed Bill Clinton for President and Gerry Finnegan for Congress. Fred Thompson has been openly courting Nebraska’s House delegation.
But the two items that seal it, came in the last two days. First, Chuck Hagel’s scheduled May 18 fundraiser, a high-dollar event hosted by Governor Dave Heineman and several high-profile Omaha business leaders. Second, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s commitment to appear at that fundraiser. Certainly, McConnell would not be appearing at a Hagel fundraiser unless he was given assurances that Hagel was running for reelection and not for President.
Now, what does this mean? Unfortunately, it probably means we can count out our top tier of candidates. Mike Fahey is happy with his job as mayor, and has already said he won’t challenge Hagel. Bob Kerrey has basically endorsed Hagel for Senate. And Scott Kleeb, who has a bright future in the Democratic Party, isn’t about to jeopardize it on a challenge of a sitting U.S. Senator when there’s an absolute embarrassment of a Congressman representing his district.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Republican civil war that’s sure to come might just provide Democrats in this state an opportunity to make some permanent gains. Between the national climate and the disillusionment of Republicans, we might see some defection of moderate Republican voters should Hagel fall victim to Bruning’s challenge. Hagel’s going to have the backing of the NRSC, virtually every elected Republican in the state, and all but a few prominent Nebraska businessmen (Mid-America Energy CEO David Sokol is a prominent backer of Jon Bruning). But don’t underestimate Republican hatred of Hagel. It’ll be an interesting race to say the least. Stay tuned.